Among likely voters, Biden’s lead shrinks to 1.2%, which is similar to 2016 when Hilary Clinton won the popular vote by 2.1%. Biden’s lead among likely voters narrowly trails Clinton’s 2016 popular vote margin. Biden leads by 10 points in urban/suburban areas of the country while Trump is up 40 points in exurban markets. Also, Trump is up nearly 7 points in the swing states, which account for almost a quarter of likely voters in this poll.