Final 2020 U.S. Election Battleground Polls: Florida, Minnesota, Michigan, and Pennsylvania
Analysis by Randy Ellison, with Ella Anderson.
Our final polls before Tuesday’s election show Joe Biden with a lead across four key battleground states.
We polled likely voters on the presidential election, critical senate elections, candidate favorability, campaign effectiveness, and more.
More analysis, including comparisons to the 2016 exit polls, will be posted to our website before election day.
Below are results for likely voters. We also included crosstabs for each state.
| US Senate | Early Voters | Election Day Voters | Ballot With Leaners and Early Voters | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tina Smith | 64% | 46% | 53% | +9% |
| Jason Lewis | 33% | 49% | 44% | |
| Other/Undecided | 3% | 5% | 3% | |
| Presidential | Early Voters | Election Day Voters | Ballot With Leaners and Early Voters |
| US Senate | Early Voters | Election Day Voters | Ballot With Leaners and Early Voters | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gary Peters | 72% | 35% | 54% | +11 |
| John James | 26% | 54% | 43% | |
| Other/Undecided | 1% | 11% | 2% | |
| Presidential | Early Voters | Election Day Voters | Ballot With Leaners and Early Voters |
| Presidential | Early Voters | Election Day Voters | Ballot With Leaners and Early Voters | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Biden | 82% | 43% | 56% | +14 |
| Donald Trump | 17% | 53% | 42% | |
| Other/Undecided | 1% | 5% | 2% |
While former Vice President Joe Biden is holding onto a 4-point lead over President Donald Trump among likely voters in Florida, we did review results among consistently known voters within our sample.
If turnout mirrors prior elections, which is unlikely, we could see a closer result in Florida. Historically, statewide races in Florida tend to be very tight on election day.
| Presidential | Early Voters | Election Day Voters | Ballot With Leaners and Early Voters | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Biden | 57% | 43% | 50.8% | +3.7 |
| Donald Trump | 42% | 51% | 47.1% | |
| Other/Undecided | 1% | 6% | 2.1% |
| Presidential | Ballot With Leaners and Early Voters | |
|---|---|---|
| Joe Biden | 49.2% | Tied |
| Donald Trump | 49.2% | |
| Other/Undecided | 1.6% |